Message-ID: <4618811.1075840777981.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2001 13:29:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: nelson.neale@enron.com
To: vince.kaminski@enron.com, vasant.shanbhogue@enron.com
Subject: Petrochem Desk
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X-From: Nelson Neale <Nelson Neale/NA/Enron@ENRON>
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I had a chance to speak with Christian LeBroc this morning with regard to curve building for petrochemicals.  As it turns out, Christian left RAC in April and joined the Petrochem Desk as a trader.  Previous efforts at construction of a forward curve by the group have focused on intuition or SWAGs.  Unfortunately, the group had a rough P&L year with at least some of the blame directed toward the forward curve or lack thereof.  When asked about the fundamentals group, Christian indicated that they'd only been around about 3-4 months and are not yet well-suited to curve building.  John Nowlan is indeed the head of the group.   

From a timing perspective, I told Christian that it would probably take at least 6-8 weeks to develop a curve, especially considering the need to understand the key market drivers/fundamentals.  As was suggested yesterday during our meeting, a strong relationship between petrochemicals and a NYMEX component (e.g., crude oil) would provide a great beginning point--we could then potentially strengthen/augment  this relationship with other key factors (e.g., supply and demand terms) borne out of our market research.

Nelson